Nifty what lies ahead

Just an attempt to analyse the Nifty next move.

Since the panic low of 10276 which made on 6-Feb , i am maintaining my view that we will revisit that low and in case that low is broken we are heading for 10100-10000.

Today on 19-Feb we made a low 10302.75 so in a way we can say the low is tested, but in my view the worst is still not over. I am seeing a low below 10276 in next 1-10 days. This low should be around 10100, nearer to 200 day SMA which is as of now at 10076.  The range between 10100-10000 should act as good support. 

The reason i am still bearish is that we are now trading the 5 month SMA which is at present around 10500, so as long as we are below 10500, we are good for 5-10 % correction , which means 10000 -9750 and in worst case 9600.  These are just probabilities, but in present scenario below 10000 is not likely.

In trend line terms the red TL which is looking to be violtaed on upside is now acting as resistance and blue TL which is around 10250 is acting as support. Breaking that TL is not a good sign for bulls.

Now coming to daily charts. If Nifty tomorrow breaks below th contracting channel shown by white lines, then it can go down another 300-400 points, which is also around 10000-9900.

In one line as long as Nifty is trading below 10500 it can go to 10276-10100-10000.

Disclosure: I am not a SEBI certified analyst so please take your own call before acting on this call. Further i do not hold any position in Nifty Futures. However i do hold some Nifty options to hedge my portfolio.