Time for Nifty Analysis. Let's start with big picture.
Nifty on Monthly charts. From last three months Nifty is unable to cross the trend line(shown by Red line) from which it reversed in 2008 and 2015. Nifty tried to cross that line but not given close above it. Three months and three failures that is not a good sign. Some serious signs of exhaustion at these levels. Nifty Monthly RSI(E 9,14) is just about to give negative cross-over almost after 9 months(another bad sign).
Nifty 5 Month SMA which i track for long term trend is at present 9785 and we just close at 9788, just 3 points higher again not a good sign. If next week's close comes below 9785 that will open the road the door for 200-300 points on the down side. Scary but true. Around 9500 there will be some support shown by yellow trend line.
However if Nifty manages to close above that trend line next month that will open the doors for 600-900 points on the up side close to 10800-11000.
Now next part of the ladder. Nifty on Weekly charts. On weekly charts Nifty just broke down from a trend line which it was respecting from last 5 months another bad sign.RSI is also showing negative diversion. Minimum target of that break down is
10149-9685 = 464 so 9942-464 = 9478.
But some supports are also around 9700-
1. 9685 previous lows of August
2.9600-9700(June to July range where Nifty made multiple tops so that will act as support.
Breaking below 9685 will also cause the channel break down shown by white lines. Targets of that is also comes around 9500.
One more thing 61.8% retracment of the total rally from April lows of 9075 to highs of 10178 is also around 9500, A fair gain for the bears.
Now move to next ladder. Nifty on Daily charts. Some supports around again 9685, shown by yellow trend line.
But bad new is the red trend line and move below 89 daily SMA, which is at present is 9820.
So resistances for the Nifty is at 9820-9880-9950 and supports are in the range of 9685-9600-9500.
Conclusion: Until we give a close above 9950 we are in a down trend. There can be two possibilities
1. Nifty stays in the range of 9700-9950 for some time(60 % chance)
2. Nifty moves down to 9500 and then reverses(30% chance)
3. Nifty moves above 9950 and then try to move for new highs(10% chance).
Disclosure: I am not a SEBI certified analyst and this post is just for study purposes and not a buy/sell call. Further i do not have any position in Nifty Futures.
Nifty on Monthly charts. From last three months Nifty is unable to cross the trend line(shown by Red line) from which it reversed in 2008 and 2015. Nifty tried to cross that line but not given close above it. Three months and three failures that is not a good sign. Some serious signs of exhaustion at these levels. Nifty Monthly RSI(E 9,14) is just about to give negative cross-over almost after 9 months(another bad sign).
Nifty 5 Month SMA which i track for long term trend is at present 9785 and we just close at 9788, just 3 points higher again not a good sign. If next week's close comes below 9785 that will open the road the door for 200-300 points on the down side. Scary but true. Around 9500 there will be some support shown by yellow trend line.
However if Nifty manages to close above that trend line next month that will open the doors for 600-900 points on the up side close to 10800-11000.
Now next part of the ladder. Nifty on Weekly charts. On weekly charts Nifty just broke down from a trend line which it was respecting from last 5 months another bad sign.RSI is also showing negative diversion. Minimum target of that break down is
10149-9685 = 464 so 9942-464 = 9478.
But some supports are also around 9700-
1. 9685 previous lows of August
2.9600-9700(June to July range where Nifty made multiple tops so that will act as support.
Breaking below 9685 will also cause the channel break down shown by white lines. Targets of that is also comes around 9500.
One more thing 61.8% retracment of the total rally from April lows of 9075 to highs of 10178 is also around 9500, A fair gain for the bears.
Now move to next ladder. Nifty on Daily charts. Some supports around again 9685, shown by yellow trend line.
But bad new is the red trend line and move below 89 daily SMA, which is at present is 9820.
So resistances for the Nifty is at 9820-9880-9950 and supports are in the range of 9685-9600-9500.
Conclusion: Until we give a close above 9950 we are in a down trend. There can be two possibilities
1. Nifty stays in the range of 9700-9950 for some time(60 % chance)
2. Nifty moves down to 9500 and then reverses(30% chance)
3. Nifty moves above 9950 and then try to move for new highs(10% chance).
Disclosure: I am not a SEBI certified analyst and this post is just for study purposes and not a buy/sell call. Further i do not have any position in Nifty Futures.
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